Within a decade, it is expected that China will have as many nuclear warheads deployed as the United States. Pentagon estimates suggest that Beijing will have 1,500 operable nuclear weapons by 2035.

Does the rise of China as a nuclear strategic superpower present a fundamental threat to deterrence, arms control, and arms race stability? Experts contend that China has set in motion an ambitious nuclear modernization program that could result in a world with three significant nuclear peer great powers by the mid-2030s.

China aims to use its nuclear breakout to pierce the rimland barrier without igniting a great-power war. Xi’s ability to dominate the conflict spectrum—from low-intensity political pressure to potential nuclear warfare—has likely emboldened him to sharpen the pressure in this region in recent months.

The department's report states that US needs integration of non-nuclear capabilities, where feasible, to support nuclear deterrence mission.

The US Department of Defense is reviewing approaches to nuclear deterrence against the backdrop of China and Russia's growing nuclear capabilities, as well as the possible absence of international arms control agreements after February,